Where on Earth are We Going? -- Toward a Learning Society?

Thomas F. Malone

• Excessive consumption in industrial countries,  
• Unrestrained population growth in developing countries,
• Inadequate measures to lessen the environmental impact of economic and demographic growth in both groups of countries,
• A further widening in the quality of life between the rich and the poor, both within and between countries, and
• The exclusion of the abundant sources of environmentally benign energy in favor of  fossil fuels that power economic growth and disrupt world climate,

Civilization’s response to the challenge posed by these interrelated issues will guide humanity to one of three discernable paths toward 2050:

• One path represents a dramatically escalating global conflict of unprecedented cataclysms, sparked by suicidal terrorism and fraught with weapons of mass destruction capable of obliterating civilization.
• A second path involves a more moderate continuation of the current global conflict coupled with an amplified deterioration in the capacity of the environment to support humanity that, in turn, will fuel global conflict.
• A third path is the pursuit of the viable vision of a global society in which all of the basic human needs can be met and an equitable share of human wants can be enjoyed by every individual in present and future generations while maintaining a healthy, physically attractive, and biologically productive environment.

Judicious choices by individuals and institutions will be required to address the fundamental issues and steer humanity towards this life-sustaining third path.  Global development and worldwide adoption of a set of values to guide human behavior are necessary to begin this colossal task. New partnerships need to be forged among (a) academia, (b) business & industry, (c) governments, (d) civic, faith, & nongovernmental organizations, and (e) industrialized and developing countries to activate the “universal learning, universally shared” within an ethical framework urged by the legendary E. O. Wilson in his Consilience.  Existing institutions such as the InterAcademy Council (for academia), and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (for business and industry), the United Nations (for governments), the World Values Survey and the Parliament of the World’s Religions (for NGOs), provide appropriate points of departure for developing these partnerships.

Proposed institutional innovations:

• Creation of a global array of networks of local communities, linked internally and externally by modern communications, that is dedicated to developing a consensus on the set of fundamental values to guide human behavior. A point of departure for developing this set has been suggested by Yale scholar Wendell Bell (The Futurist, September-October 2004). This values-set consists of:

            (Ultimately, annual funding of ~ $10 billion is proposed for this initiative.*)

• An array of 40 Learning Institutions in developing countries linked with comparable institutions (universities) in industrial countries, unifying all knowledge and aiming to synthesize human values and apply them to social decisions on the issues of environmental sustainability, economic equity, social stability, and environmentally benign sources of energy in order to provide wise direction to economic and demographic growth (this array draws on the U. S. experience with its extraordinarily successful State University and Land Grant College System inaugurated in the 19^th century),

(In time, annual funding of ~ $40 billion [$30 in developing countries, $10 billion in industrialized countries is proposed for this endeavor.)

• A joint academic/business & industry/government initiative to accelerate the transition in the sources of energy from fossil fuels to environmentally benign

sources, implemented under the auspices of the United Nations.

(Annual funding of ~ $30 billion is proposed for this initiative to be deployed as quickly as feasible.)

Sources for the ~ $80 billion of total annual funding could be available from:

• Reallocation of five percent of current global military expenditures of $662 billion to yield about $33 billion,
• Reallocation of ten percent of the $300 billion of annual worldwide subsidies to provide energy from fossil fuels to yield ~ $30 billion,
• A modest (0.1%) “Tobin Tax” on international financial transactions has been estimated  to yield $50 to $300 billion annually.

* All financial estimates are tentative – to be discussed with conference participants.